By Ibrahim Kegbegbe
The reported emergence of former Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau as the consensus senatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress for Kano Central ahead of the 2027 elections may appear, on the surface, like an ordinary political arrangement. However, beyond the headlines lies a deeper political calculation capable of reshaping Kano’s electoral dynamics and weakening the traditional dominance of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in the state.
For years, Kwankwaso has remained one of the most influential political figures in Northern Nigeria, particularly in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement has grown into a formidable political structure. His popularity among the youth, grassroots supporters and urban voters has made him a recurring force in presidential and gubernatorial contests.
Political observers believe that if Kwankwaso eventually aligns with the National Democratic Coalition as Peter Obi’s vice-presidential running mate in 2027, Kano State could become one of the major battlegrounds in the presidential election.
Such an alliance would naturally pose a serious challenge to Tinubu’s reelection ambitions, as political influence in Kano has historically translated into massive votes. Kano remains one of Nigeria’s most populous states with one of the highest voting strengths in the country. Any presidential candidate capable of securing significant support in the state automatically gains a strategic advantage nationally.
This is where the emergence of Shekarau becomes politically significant.
Unlike many politicians in Kano, Shekarau possesses an independent political identity and loyal support base that predates several modern political alignments in the state. His reputation as a grassroots politician, Islamic scholar and experienced administrator still resonates among sections of conservative and elderly voters in Kano Central and beyond.
By rallying behind Shekarau as a consensus figure, the APC may have strategically chosen a politician capable of dividing the traditional anti-Tinubu voting bloc that Kwankwaso would ordinarily rely upon.
The political logic is straightforward.
If Kwankwaso contests the 2027 election as part of an Obi-led coalition under the NDC platform, he would likely attempt to consolidate Kano votes against the APC. However, Shekarau’s presence on the ballot under the APC could reduce the total political influence of the Kwankwasiyya movement by attracting moderate conservatives, religious loyalists and older APC supporters who still maintain strong emotional and political ties with the former governor.
This could eventually produce a split in Kano’s voting pattern rather than allowing Kwankwaso to dominate the state politically.
More importantly, Shekarau’s consensus emergence following the withdrawal of six aspirants suggests internal unity within the APC ahead of the election cycle. In Nigerian politics, consensus arrangements are often designed not only to prevent internal crises but also to preserve resources and consolidate influence before major national contests.
For President Tinubu, Kano remains too important to lose overwhelmingly.
Although the president secured substantial support in parts of the North during the 2023 elections, the growing opposition coalition being discussed ahead of 2027 means the APC cannot afford political complacency in strategic northern states. The party understands that weakening Kwankwaso’s total control of Kano may significantly improve Tinubu’s overall electoral chances nationally.
Another factor likely influencing the APC’s strategy is the political experience Shekarau brings into the equation. Unlike younger politicians still building structures, Shekarau has contested, governed and survived multiple political transitions in Kano. His influence cuts across religious institutions, political associates and long-established grassroots networks.
This means the APC may not necessarily need Shekarau to completely defeat Kwankwaso politically. Even a partial reduction in Kwankwaso’s expected vote strength in Kano could become a major advantage for Tinubu in a tightly contested presidential election.
Nevertheless, Kano politics remains highly unpredictable.
Kwankwaso still commands enormous popularity among urban youths and loyal Kwankwasiyya supporters, many of whom view him as the most consistent political voice from Kano in recent years. His alliance with Peter Obi, if eventually formalised under the NDC, could also attract voters seeking an alternative political direction at the national level.
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However, the APC’s apparent calculation seems clear: neutralise Kwankwaso’s electoral dominance by elevating another heavyweight from Kano with enough political credibility to divide influence, retain conservative northern voters and strengthen Tinubu’s pathway to victory in one of Nigeria’s most politically valuable states.
As political alignments continue ahead of 2027, Kano may once again prove that beyond campaign rallies and party slogans, elections in Nigeria are often won through strategic alliances, regional calculations and the careful balancing of political heavyweights.
