By Ibrahim Kegbegbe
In Maiduguri recently, a coalition under the banner Bring Back Our Goodluck (BBOG) gathered to make a bold demand: the return of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as Nigeria’s leader in 2027. The scene was symbolic—North-East Nigeria, where Jonathan’s presidency was both challenged and scarred by the rise of Boko Haram, is now calling for his return as a “rescuer.” But the clamour raises a deeper national question: can Jonathan, legally and politically, mount a comeback?
Jonathan’s Record: Between Growth and Security Shadows
Jonathan’s presidency (2010–2015) is remembered as a paradox. On one hand, the economy grew robustly, Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy in 2014, and reforms in agriculture and power showed glimpses of modernisation. His administration oversaw the privatisation of the power sector and the creation of e-wallet systems for farmers, reforms which even critics admit were forward-looking.
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On the other hand, Jonathan’s tenure was haunted by crises that defined public perception. The 2012 Occupy Nigeria protests exposed his government’s missteps on fuel subsidy removal. More damaging was the Chibok girls’ abduction of 2014, which spotlighted the government’s sluggish response to insecurity. By 2015, despite economic statistics tilting in his favour, Jonathan had lost the political momentum to Muhammadu Buhari, a defeat that still shapes his legacy.
Tinubu’s Era: Reform, Pain, and Uncertainty
Against Jonathan’s mixed legacy, Nigerians now weigh Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s performance. Since May 2023, Tinubu has pursued bold reforms: ending fuel subsidies, unifying exchange rates, and pushing for a new ₦70,000 minimum wage. Economists hailed the reforms as “necessary surgery,” but for ordinary Nigerians, the pain is unbearable. Food inflation hovers stubbornly, transport costs are punishing, and insecurity lingers.
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Tinubu’s reforms may yield dividends over time, but politics is less patient than economics. By 2027, the ballot box will not judge fiscal orthodoxy—it will judge lived experiences. This is the vacuum into which Jonathan’s name is resurfacing.
The Legal Puzzle: Is Jonathan Eligible?
The heart of the Jonathan comeback debate lies not in Maiduguri or Lagos, but in the Constitution. Section 137(3), introduced in the 2018 constitutional amendment, states that anyone sworn in twice as president cannot be elected again. Jonathan took the oath in 2010 (after Yar’Adua’s death) and again in 2011 (after winning at the polls).
To some lawyers, this disqualifies him outright. To others, the amendment cannot apply retroactively. A Federal High Court in Yenagoa even ruled in 2022 that Jonathan remains eligible, reasoning that he has only been “elected” once. But no final pronouncement has come from the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved.
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Thus, a Jonathan candidacy would almost certainly spark legal battles. If disqualified mid-race, his campaign could collapse before momentum builds. If cleared, he would still face political battles within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or any platform he might adopt.
Can He Win in 2027?
Theoretically, Jonathan has advantages: name recognition, nostalgia for relative economic stability, and sympathy from voters tired of reform-induced hardship. International examples—Lula in Brazil, Mahathir in Malaysia—show that comebacks are possible when voters long for stability.
Yet Nigeria’s context is different. Jonathan’s 2015 loss was not narrow; it reflected elite defections and grassroots disillusionment. For him to win again, he would need:
A broad coalition across the North-West and North-East regions, which are hardest hit by insecurity.
A convincing plan on inflation, wages, and food supply.
A clear narrative that lessons have been learned from past security lapses.
Above all, a legal greenlight that puts the eligibility debate to rest well before campaigns begin.
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My Take
The calls from Maiduguri reflect real frustrations, but they may also be an emotional grasp for stability in unstable times. Nigerians often romanticise the past when the present feels unbearable. Jonathan’s presidency had merits, but it was not without deep flaws that voters still remember.
Legally, his eligibility remains a coin toss. Politically, the Nigeria of 2027 will be far different from 2015: younger, more urban, and more restless. Nostalgia alone cannot deliver power. Unless Jonathan demonstrates both legal clarity and a new vision, his return will likely remain a chant at press conferences—not a reality at the ballot box.
For now, the movement to “Bring Back Our Goodluck” is less about Jonathan the man and more about what he symbolises: a yearning for leadership that soothes rather than stings. Whether he can embody that again, history—and the Constitution—will decide.
Ibrahim Kegbegbe is a journalist and public affairs analyst. He writes from Lagos.
